AA vs QQ – odds and probability for the poker hands AA vs QQ

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Mark | Poker Articles, Poker Rules

AA vs QQ

Yesterday we covered the ins and outs of what happens, and how often, pocket aces will run into a pair of kings. Now we will give the same treatment to the next pair down the list, pocket queens, ladies, Siegfried and Roy, whatever your preference for naming the third best hand in Texas Hold’em.

Odds and probability of AA vs QQ happening

Like in the aces versus kings scenario, the odds of being dealt aces or queens and having an AA vs QQ encounter are exactly the same. You will be dealt queens once in every 221 hands and the chances a player being dealt pocket aces is around once in every 205 hands, or 0.48% However, this increases dramatically depending on how many opponents you are up against. For example, if there are five opponents on your table then there is a 2.88% chance someone holds aces, whilst against nine opponents there is a 4.32% chance one of them will hold pocket rockets.

The dreaded AA vs QQ situation, dreaded for the pair of queens anyway, actually occurs much less frequently than AA vs KK. Although the odds are exactly the same the way people bet their hands generally prevent an all in encounter taking place. Where as a player with pocket kings is almost always going to commit his entire stack preflop in a 100 big blind deep cash game, a player with queens, whether using the betfair welcome bonus or not, is much less likely to do so as they will be worried not only about running into aces but also kings beat their hand too so they will play much more cautiously preflop.

AA vs QQ in poker tournaments

Those looking at betfair poker tips note that the most common scenario for an AA vs QQ situation would be either in a poker tournament where the stacks are much shallower and the money would go almost certainly go in preflop then. In an all in situation, aces will prevail against pocket queens 81.55% of the time, which is actually 0.40% less than against a pair of kings. This is because you can make more straights that do not contain aces when holding queens, but there are still a very long shot and should not be relied upon!

AA vs QQ in cash games

In a cash game, or when deeper stacked you will often see the majority of the money going in on a low, uncoordinated flop, but this is disastrous for queens as you will find out. In our hand a player raises with pocket queens from early position, a player in late position three-bets and our hero calls. The flop comes down 7d-Ts-4c, a pretty excellent flop for our hero’s queens. However, if he is in an AA vs QQ situation here he is a 91.62% underdog and drawing to the two remaining queens in the deck and it is hard to see all the but the best players in the world getting away from queens regardless of the action on this flop.

Famous AA vs QQ confrontations

There was a high profile AA vs QQ hand at the 2007 World Series of Poker Main Event where the money went in preflop thanks to some tricky play with pocket aces. With blinds at 3,000/6,000 and a 1,000 running ante, Tom Petersen opened with a raise to 22,000 holding KcJc. Next to act was Rami Boukai, an experienced tournament player and he decided to simply call with his AdAc. The action folded to Hevad Khan who looked at a pair of black queens and quickly made it 74,000 to play. Petersen quickly folded but Boukai was obviously going nowhere and he put in a further raise to 224,000, which saw Khan move all-in and Boukai to snap-call.

At this point Boukai had 81.55% equity in the 1,136,000 pot and it looked as if Khan’s Main Event was over for another year. However, Khan not only flopped one queen but two for quads, the chances of that happening were just 0.25% or once in every 408 hands if you prefer it that way! This extremely unlikely occurrence gave Khan enough chips and momentum to make it to the final table, where he finished sixth for a cool $956,243.

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2 Comments to AA vs QQ – odds and probability for the poker hands AA vs QQ

Mike
June 6, 2011

I had the worst luck last night and I’m having trouble getting over it… 6 players including me at a 1/2 NLH cash game at the Hard Rock Tampa.. The guy to the right of me messes up his bet and the dealer forces him to go all in for whatever reason. The player only had $55. I still don’t understand why he had to go all in, but he did. I look at my hand and I have AA. I think to myself, this is the situation I have been waiting for, for the last 8 hours.. I quickly call the $55.. The Player to the left of me calls as well. The player next to him folds and the last player re-raises all in for an additional $150.. The next player (the same guy who messed up his hand) obviously is already all in so it is up to me.. I call of course. I shove in my $200 I had in front of me and the player to the left calls as well.

At this point it is getting out of hand with three callers, but I’m still excited because I have AA. I’m thinking that I’m about to win roughly $600 and ge the hell out of there. We all flip over out hands, I have AA, player to the left of me has Qc8C, the guy to the left of him has QQ and the guy who messed up his hand has nothing…

Flop comes 7 7 4. I’m winning at this point, fantastic! Turn comes Q and river comes 7. The A-hole who had QQ got the boat Q’s over 7’s. He only had 1 out and he got it. What’s the odds?

whitey
July 2, 2011

not good….. I had a similar experience tonight in a FL poker room… With four players behind I shoved all in with QQ and of course was called by AA in the 9 seat…… “lost” $300 on that had and its 97% that I don’t run into kings…. In other words, a 3% chance that this was a legit beat…

More than likely, the games down here are COLD DECKED regularly…. lol, but true!

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